Horse Race Reporting: Comin’ round the bend…

Our Failed Political Press ™ just cannot help themselves, it’s all a game to them.

Below are our rankings of the 10 people from among whom the 2024 GOP nominee is likely to emerge. As usual, they are in order of likeliness to be nominated, which takes into account both how likely they are to run — or that they’re already running — and their formidability if they do.

Others worth mentioning: Former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson, former White House national security adviser John Bolton, former congresswoman Liz Cheney (Wyo.), former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, former congressman Will Hurd (Tex.).

10. Vivek Ramaswamy: Points are obviously awarded here for actually being in the race. The biotech entrepreneur, one of three reasonably well-known, declared candidates, also has demonstrated a knack for gaining right-wing media attention in his campaign against “woke”-ism. Don’t be surprised if you see him one day on a debate stage; the challenge from there is making enough people think he’s viable. (Previous ranking: n/a)

9. Kristi L. Noem: After our last rankings, the South Dakota governor told CBS News, “I’m not convinced that I need to run for president.” But last month, she was more coy when asked a similar question. Also worth noting: Axios recently listed Noem and three other women as being among those from among whom Trump is considering picking a running mate. (Previous ranking: 10)

8. Chris Sununu: To the extent the 2024 GOP primary contains a formidable candidate arguing for a significant break from Trumpism, the New Hampshire governor appears the most likely possibility. Others have bowed out (ex-Maryland governor Larry Hogan) or don’t really appear to have a shot (Bolton, Cheney). What’s particularly interesting about Sununu, though, is that he’s also arguing for a different course from the one offered by the other front-runner, DeSantis, who Sununu suggests is too willing to wield the power of government to crack down on supposed “woke” private entities. There probably isn’t a market for this more-staid, traditional brand of conservatism, but Sununu would be a fascinating candidate to watch. (Previous ranking: 8)

7. Mike Pompeo: The former secretary of state came out relatively strongly against Trump this month. He obliquely criticized Trump not just for his poor recent electoral track record but also on a personal level. “We can’t become the left, following celebrity leaders with their own brand of identity politics — those with fragile egos who refuse to acknowledge reality,” he said at the Conservative Political Action Conference. He added: “We can’t shift blame to others but must accept the responsibility that comes to those of us who step forward and lead.” Expect to hear more where that came from, because Pompeo appears likely to run. (Previous ranking: 7)

6. Glenn Youngkin: The Virginia governor has now seen a top political adviser jump ship to another potential candidate, with Jeff Roe joining DeSantis’s political operation. That could be seen merely as a move to a more formidable candidate. But The Washington Post’s Michael Scherer and Hannah Knowles also reported that Youngkin recently seemed “uninterested in entertaining questions about a run for national office” during a recent donor retreat in Georgia. (Previous ranking: 5)

5. Nikki Haley: The good news for the former South Carolina governor and U.S. ambassador to the United Nations is that she’s competing with Mike Pence in polls for the top non-Trump and non-DeSantis spot. The bad news is that still means she’s around 5 percent. Haley has carved out early ground as perhaps the most hawkish potential 2024 candidate on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. And many Republicans still think that helping Ukraine is important. But unless that becomes a much more prominent issue in the primary — and to the extent that DeSantis tacks toward the middle on it — it’s not clear it will matter much. (Previous ranking: 8)

4. Mike Pence: Sometimes a quote about someone sticks with you. In his new article on the awful things Republicans in focus groups say about the former vice president, the Atlantic’s McKay Coppins offered this very insightful line: “… In creating a permission structure for voters to excuse Trump’s defective character and flouting of religious values, Pence was unwittingly making himself irrelevant. In effect, he spent four years convincing conservative Christian voters that the very thing he had to offer them didn’t matter.” (Previous ranking: 4)

3. Tim Scott: The senator from South Carolina is not polling like the top alternative to Trump and DeSantis; he’s usually stuck with all the others around 1 percent. But he’s doing just about everything you’d expect a would-be candidate to do, and he’s someone you can see emerging as a credible alternative to Trump — especially if DeSantis does flame out or just fades. Perhaps nobody in the field could drive the kind of happy-warrior message Scott appears likely to go with. His presence in the 2024 race could also be unusual in another way: He well might be the only senator. (Previous ranking: 3)

2. Ron DeSantis: (Previous ranking: 1)

1. Donald Trump: (Previous ranking: 2)

The thing that gets me is that they do not speak about what kind of administration any of these thugs and bums would have, and what a President X would mean or do to/for the country. The number of outright fascists on that GOP list is frightening, the proto-fascists are not much better, and the theocrats are not comforting. Empty calories is what I am saying.

The section at the beginning of the linked article posits that ¡JEB!Santis has slipped significantly in the past week. I’m not convinced that there is anything here to support it other than it makes for clickbait (and I clicked).