Republican Purity Doomed Their Midterm Results

H/T Scissorhead Skinny-D

It seems that in the recent elections, it wasn’t that Team Evil didn’t turn out, it’s that the Republicans voted for the Democrats (emphasis. mine):

After yet another disappointing showing for Republicans in Georgia’s Senate runoff on Tuesday, some conservatives — like Sean Hannity, Newt Gingrich and Kevin McCarthy — have begun to point to a surprising culprit: a failure to take advantage of early voting.

The theory seems to be that Republicans are losing because early voting is giving Democrats a turnout edge. It follows a similar conversation after the midterm elections, when a chorus of conservatives said Republicans needed to start encouraging mail voting.

But as more data becomes available on turnout in this year’s election, it is quite clear that turnout was not the main problem facing Republicans.

Pay attention here:

In state after state, the final turnout data shows that registered Republicans turned out at a higher rate — and in some places a much higher rate — than registered Democrats, including in many of the states where Republicans were dealt some of their most embarrassing losses.

Instead, high-profile Republicans like Herschel Walker in Georgia or Blake Masters in Arizona lost because Republican-leaning voters decided to cast ballots for Democrats, even as they voted for Republican candidates for U.S. House or other down-ballot races in their states.

Show your work, NateCohn/NYTimes!

Take Maricopa County in Arizona. It’s home to Phoenix and around 70 percent of the state’s voters. Some Republicans say — without any clear evidence — they faltered in Arizona because some Maricopa voters were unable to cast ballots at the polls on Election Day, but the final turnout data shows that 75 percent of registered Republicans turned out, compared with 69 percent of Democrats. That was enough to yield an electorate in which registered Republicans outnumbered Democrats by nine percentage points. Yet Republicans like Mr. Masters and Kari Lake lost their races for Senate and governor.

Or consider Clark County in Nevada. There, 67 percent of Republicans voted, compared with 57 percent of Democrats, implying that Republicans probably outnumbered Democrats statewide. Yet the Democrat — Catherine Cortez Masto — prevailed in the Senate race while Republicans won the governorship and also won the most votes for the House.

Going back to a highlight above, Nate concludes:

Wherever I’ve dug into the data, I see a similar story. You can read comprehensive analyses of North Carolina, Florida or New York, all showing a considerable Republican edge as well.

In the key Senate states mentioned in this article, Republican House candidates received more votes than Democratic ones. The final Times/Siena polls showed that voters in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada preferred Republican control of the Senate.

It’s fair to say voters in these key states probably preferred Republican control of government, in no small part because more Republicans showed up to vote. They just didn’t find Republican candidates they wanted to support at the top of the ticket.

I have a hard time believing that a Republican would split their vote and pull the lever for a Democrat, but I do not have a hard time believing that they might leave it blank, and that effectively is a vote for the Democrat. A possibility that Cohn doesn’t analyze but might be in play is that the Republican voter might have thought that their candidate was a RINO.

It happens on the Left all the time. The Susan Sarandons  never, ever hold their noses and takes one for the team. They will NOT be sullied!

There’s all sorts of reasons why a Republican might not vote for their candidate, and the Republican Purity Patrol lurks in their ranks just as they do in ours.

UPDATE 1: in the comments, Scissorhead BDR spots a really obvious, glaring error:

I call shenanigans. https://azsos.gov/elections/results-data/voter-registration-statistics

A THIRD of registered voters in AZ are ‘Others’, aka ‘Independents’

Any analysis that tries to figure this out by only comparing R/D turnout is bullshit.

Steaming, rank, FTFNYT bullshit.

 

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11 Responses to Republican Purity Doomed Their Midterm Results

  1. I call shenanigans. https://azsos.gov/elections/results-data/voter-registration-statistics

    A THIRD of registered voters in AZ are ‘Others’, aka ‘Independents’

    Any analysis that tries to figure this out by only comparing R/D turnout is bullshit.

    Steaming, rank, FTFNYT bullshit.

    Liked by 3 people

    • The same is true for Nevada, btw. https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showpublisheddocument/11247/638059201044730000

      I are just a common snarky Scissorhead but it took me like 15 seconds to find that information. Maybe someone needs to Inform Nate of the existence of google https://letmegooglethat.com/

      Liked by 3 people

      • MDavis says:

        Hubby and I would not declare Democrat (in Nevada). Two reasons. He was on the fence about a lot of democrat candidates, but the bigger reason is that we register at the DOL when getting a driver’s license.
        We’re not alone in thinking that – if the cops know what party you are – you are painting a target on your, er, rear license plate. If it’s in the DOL data, you think the cops can’t get it if they want?
        I might sound paranoid but I keep remembering that visit to the guy a few miles down the road, with a question about the RV we had just come into possession of. We had to wait until he was done shooting his 50mm on a moving platform down his home-built firing range before he would talk to us. All perfectly normal.
        There are reasons Tremors was set in rural Nevada, and it wasn’t all the loose alluvial soils.

        Liked by 1 person

      • I don’t know, AZ also has registration via DMV interactions, but I’ve been told that it isn’t DMV data, they just take the info and hand it off to the SOS office.

        Cops have access to whatever info’s on your license, no more (unless you’re in other LE databases.)

        That said, registration info is public info in most states, so if they really wanted to find out they could.

        Does registering as ‘No Party’ or ‘Independent’ in Nevada block you from voting in primaries? Here in AZ it just means you can vote in one party’s primary, and you get to choose. (except for President..to vote in a Presidential primary you have to be registered with a party. Now that NV has moved up and might actually count, this may change your calculations)

        Like

      • MDavis says:

        Primaries are open only to the members of the party running the primary.
        Question 3 was on the ballot this year and will change that if it passes again in another even-numbered year. It’s an amendment to the state constitution, so them’s the rules.
        If that happens, it’ll open primaries so voters make their picks and the top five move on to the final round. Those picks are regardless of the candidate’s party.
        The same measure will introduce ranked choice voting if it passes, alas, too late for the 2024 election.
        We also voted a minimum wage hike to $12/hour – sadly, this question included removing an annual adjustment for inflation – that might have been a mistake in the long run.

        Like

      • There are reasons Tremors was set in rural Nevada, and it wasn’t all the loose alluvial soils.

        Ah so you’re neighbors with Burt Gummer, then!

        Liked by 1 person

  2. Stony Pillow says:

    Rs always turn out more consistently in midterms, because the olds do that.

    Another “Show your work” for Nattering Nate: Compare D and R turnout in 2022 with 2018 and other previous elections before your hot take.

    I’ll still go with my newfound one time Blue heroes- COPD, rheumatism, constipation and the everlovin’ aches and pains that jumped the olds on election day. Shunning early voting only makes sense if you’re going to steal the election after the fact.

    Sadly, the Rs will never refuse early voting again.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Until 2020 Republicans were the overwhelming majority for early and mail-in voting here in TTSKoA.

      The party relied on this to routinely amp their turnout. It was Republican legislatures in AZ that expanded vote-by-mail in AZ. (like there’s been any other kind in my adult life here)

      They now have some moron in front of the state Supreme court trying to abolish it entirely because it’s “unsafe and insecure”

      This is the original case, but I think it’s made it’s way to the state supremes. https://www.azmirror.com/blog/judge-rejects-arizona-gop-lawsuit-to-ban-vote-by-mail/

      Of course, depending on what the lawless SCROTUS does in the Moore case, this could be moot since that will let the state lege do whatever the fuck they want.

      Liked by 1 person

  3. Pingback: Attempting To Analyze The Midterm Elections | personnelente

  4. angryspittle says:

    Anybody who votes Republican is either super rich, super stupid, or super bigoted and racist………

    recall if you will LBJ’s observation…….

    Liked by 1 person

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