Guys, I know I’m preaching to the choir, but you gotta ignore the polls and ignore our Failed Political Press ™ incessant horse-race coverage.
…I am not telling you to dismiss the polls that you don’t like or engage in unskewing the bad ones. I am telling you to ignore them all. For everyone other than the ad-makers and decision-makers at the party committees and Super PACs, the polls serve no purpose. None. Zero. Zilch. They are mood-altering statistical drugs.
No one knows what’s going to happen in this election. It’s one of the most unusual in history. This election is happening in the middle of a strange economy and less than two years after an attempt to violently overthrow the government. The public broadly supports the Biden agenda and is vehemently opposed to the Republican effort to overturn Roe v Wade.
Polls are not supposed to predict what will happen. They are supposed to be a snapshot in time with a relatively wide margin of error. Even the best polls have an MOE of +/- three points. That’s a spread of six points. Almost all of the major Senate and governor’s races are happening in states where Joe Biden won by less than a point. These races were always destined to fall within the margin of error. Whether a poll shows Mandela Barnes up one or down one, it means the same thing — the race is too close to call.
All of that presumes that the polls are working the way they should. And as we know painfully well, the polls are probably wrong.
Put another way, we are all freaking out about an inherently imprecise (and possibly broken) measurement.
The ultimate poll is at the ballot box itself. Ahead of that, it means absolutely nothing.
Pfeiffer raises a point that I’ve not hear anyone else say:
Ask yourself this question — how will the latest poll affect what you are going to do over the next 13 days? Will you volunteer fewer hours, donate less, or encourage fewer friends to vote?
We are in the final stretch. There is nothing left to do but persuade and mobilize.
Take it from Dan, he’s a professional! Get out the vote, stop doom scrolling.