Let’s say right off the top that paying attention to polling means you are paying attention to horse-race journalism. Polling is —at best— a snapshot in time of opinion, and opinions change as time passes. Our Failed Political Press ™ however loves to read the polls and breathlessly proclaim that one Party or the other is doomed, Doomed, DOOMED, and you might as well not vote, based upon numbers from, oh, 2 weeks ago.
Nate Silver over at 538 is pushing that the Democrats are doomed because on the generic ballot poll, well, Democrats are doomed. But the thing is, A) Midterms are NOT a national elections (no one is running for president) and 2) All politics are local, and iii) a real candidate with a real record is not a generic candidate without even a name. But ol’ Nate hopes that it makes for good reading (and for Dawg’s Sake, give him some ad dollars!).
Instead we at MPS want to encourage everyone to look at real numbers of people who have voted and find out what is the actual story. And to that end, we were pleased to see that at the top of Tiger Beat on the Potomac (thanks Charlie) morning email thingie, this one para blurb before they fell into speculation on polls and how the Democrats are doomed, Doomed, DOOMED:
THE ELECTION — 18 days left until Election Day. … 5,237,230 early votes already cast as of 10:24 p.m. Thursday, per the United States Elections Project. … Georgia Secretary of State:“Early Voting Continues Breaking Records; On Par With Presidential Level Turnout”
We’ve already mentioned Georgeduh this week, but look at that! Against all the roadblocks that the Republicans could put up to keep voters from voting, they are continuing to break records for a midterm election:
(Atlanta) – Georgia voters continued to hit record breaking turnout on day three of Early Voting. As of Thursday morning, just under 400,000 Georgia voters have cast their ballot during in-person Early Voting, with 126,918 showing up on Wednesday, October 19th. Wednesday’s total marks a 63.3% increase from day three of 2018 midterm Early Voting and is only slightly under the total of day three of Early Voting in the 2020 Presidential election…
Turnout Numbers Through 10/19/2022:
Total Turnout: 434,546
Early In-Person: 396,332
New Turnout Since Previous Day: 138,745
Early In-Person Since Previous Day: 126,918
Absentee Since Previous Day: 11,827
Turnout Through Same Day in 2020:
Early In-Person: 410,809
Turnout Through Same Day in 2018:
Early In-Person: 225,015
The enthusiasm is there, and I’ll probably regret this later, but Republicans tend to vote on Election Day; some of those roadblocks they set up to make long, discouraging lines will probably impact their own voters. Meanwhile, early voters and absentee ballot voters are getting the job done.
From the United States Election Project
National Summary Statistics for Reporting States
Total Voted by Party Registration
Reporting states with party registration data: AR, AZ, CA, CT, FL, IA, ID, KS, MD, ME, NC, NE, NJ, NM, PA, SD, WV
Party Count Percent Democrat 1,678,191 51.1 Republican 984,623 30.0 None/Minor 620,376 18.9 TOTAL 3,283,190 100.0
That’s a LOT of Democrats voting early,
Keep up the enthusiasm, we can do this. Get out the vote, that is all that matters.