It’s the Republican Party, Stupid

Republicans get to work!

Tiger Beat on the Potomac (thanks Charlie!) email thingie quantifies something we long suspected: a lot of this year’s Pie Fight candidates got to the general election without a clear majority of the vote:

TOP LINE

FIRST IN SCORE — There’s only one goal in a primary: win. Vote share is just for bragging rights in a first-past-the-post system. And this cycle, a number of candidates in battleground races advanced to the general with less than half of support in their primaries. 

That’s according to a new report first shared with POLITICO from FairVote, a pro-ranked choice voting group. In all, 120 candidates advanced from House, Senate and statewide primary elections this cycle with less than 50 percent of the vote. More than half of that group earned less than 40 percent of the vote in their primaries. The issue at hand, the report suggests, is that it can send unpopular party nominees to general elections.

Tell us about, ya mugs.

These are the candidates in the general in races to watch — ones that POLITICO forecasts as a toss-up, lean Democratic or lean Republican.

Senate: Republicans have a handful of first-time Senate candidates who have struggled throughout the cycle, from fundraising to solidifying their policy positions.

Republican Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania earned one of the lowest shares of the vote — 31 percent. Although his opponent John Fetterman does continue to have a lead over the last few weeks, Oz’s campaign appears to be closing the gap. Still, Oz has a negative favorability rating in recent polling.

In Ohio, J.D. Vance earned 32 percent of the vote. But there’s been increased optimism regarding Vance’s chances over Democrat Tim Ryan in recent weeks. In Arizona, Blake Masters received 40 percent of the primary vote. He’s still trailing incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly in the polls.

And New Hampshire Republican Don Bolduc, a far-right candidate Democrats wanted to face, earned 37 percent of the vote. Sen. Maggie Hassan leads Bolduc in the polls, but her campaign signaled that the race is tighter than it seems.

Governors: A number of Trump-backed candidates in governor’s races won with less than a majority vote. Arizona’s Kari Lake was the closest to a majority with 48 percent. Recent polling shows her virtually tied with Democrat Katie Hobbs. Wisconsin’s Tim Michels earned 47 percent in his primary. While he’s leading or tied in some polls, he still has an unfavorable candidate image — although it’s better than Democratic Gov. Tony Evers’.

On the other hand, Pennsylvania’s Doug Mastriano got 44 percent; Michigan’s Tudor Dixon received 40 percent; Nevada’s Joe Lombardo earned 38 percent; and Oregon’s Christine Drazan won 23 percent. (She’s now battling in a three-way general election where the winner is unlikely to get majority support.)

House: More than 40 competitive House races advanced a candidate who did not receive a majority vote. You’ll find these candidates in both of New Hampshire’s districts (Republicans Karoline Leavitt in NH-01 got 35 percent and and Bob Burns in NH-02 got 33 percent of the vote), NY-22, where Democrat Francis Conole got 39 percent, and VA-07, where Republican Yesli Vega had 29 percent.

The report also found that more than 30 of these primary winners are favored to win their elections. These include safe-seat-seeking Democrats Dan Goldman in NY-10, Jonathan Jackson in IL-01 and Shri Thanedar in MI-13, who all won their primaries with under 30 percent of the vote. On the gubernatorial side, Democrats Wes Moore in Maryland and incumbent Dan McKee in Rhode Island earned 32 and 33 percent, respectively.

“With more than 90 percent of congressional districts so partisan that the election is decided in the primary, our elected officials are increasingly chosen by only a fraction of a fraction of the electorate,” FairVote president and CEO Rob Richie said in a statement promoting ranked choice voting.

TBotP doesn’t say it, but I will: this is the magic of our political parties. Sure, Dr. Oz is a puppy-murdering carpet bagger from New Jersey, but Pennsyltucky Republicans gave him the nomination. JD Vance had Peter Thiel buy his Ohio Republican nomination. It goes on and on. Is Ranked-Choice Voting the answer? There’s a lot of evidence (see Mooselini’s lost election in Alaskastan) that it eliminates fringe candidates and ultimately gives voters a say in who represents them.

Anyway, here’s our obligatory reminder: Check your voter registration. There is no end to the mischief that Republicans are creating out in the hamlets and hollers of this great land.

Days until the general election: 29

Days until the 2024 election: 757

This entry was posted in 2022 Pie Fight, 2024 Goat Rodeo, Get Out The Vote, voting. Bookmark the permalink.

2 Responses to It’s the Republican Party, Stupid

  1. Stony Pillow says:

    Attacking the Rs worked – remember? Seems like that was months ago – then the Ds all dropped it when the polls moved.

    Feel like actually winning? This is the definition of a target rich field. Try it again, and keep up the skeer this time.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Zorba says:

    We got our absentee ballots, will be filling them out this week.

    Liked by 1 person

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