Tiger Beat’s morning email thingie has a special section on the 2022
Horse Race, Pie Fight that reaches an interesting conclusion: Possum Hollar is not engaged!
Rural voters were the locomotive that powered the Trump train, and their ongoing abandonment of the Democratic Party has been a major factor in America’s recent political realignment. But there are signs that the GOP’s new electoral bedrock might be eroding, at least slightly.
Our colleagues Holly Otterbein and Jessica Piper report that turnout numbers from this summer’s special elections suggest that rural voters may be growing less enthused vis-a-vis those residing in urban and suburban counties. The June Supreme Court decision overturning the constitutional right to abortion appears to be a pivot point.
This next bit is the real nut meat, so to speak —
By the numbers: “In four congressional special elections that have been held since June to fill vacant House seats — in Nebraska, Minnesota and New York — the portion of registered voters who cast ballots averaged 27 percent in suburban and urban counties, compared to 22 percent in rural counties, according to the analysis. Ahead of the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision that overturned Roe, those three groups had turnout numbers similar to each other.”
Jessica tells Playbook that strategists have a grab bag of theories for the shift. Among Democrats, “Some said it was the anti-abortion movement going to sleep after Roe v. Wade was struck down, while others said it was pro-abortion rights voters who typically support Republicans being turned off and not coming to the polls.”
And then there’s the “We don’t know how to message” excuse, except this time it is coming from the Republicans:
Holly adds that some Republicans are blaming the party’s messagingfor any slippage in the special elections. “Trump’s frequent focus on immigration was something that motivated his base,” she said. “They believe the party can pivot to reverse its fortunes for the midterms.”
In other words what Scissorheads have been saying forever: Republicans are racists. Give mayo-America a reason to be a-feared of their fellow dusky citizens and they will flock to the polls.