Axios morning email thingie shows us that the beltway press has woken up to the obvious after only a few months:
Tom Bonier — a Democratic strategist and CEO of TargetSmart, a data and polling firm — says a “Roe wave” of new women voters, fired up by the Supreme Court’s abortion decision, could swamp GOP hopes of a red wave in November’s midterms.
- “In my 28 years analyzing elections, I’ve never seen anything like what’s happened in the past two months in American politics: Women are registering to vote in numbers I’ve never witnessed,” Bonier writes in a New York Times op-ed (subscription).
Why it matters: “I’ve run out of superlatives to describe how different this moment is, especially in light of the cycles of tragedy and eventual resignation of recent years,” Bonier continues.
- “This is a moment to throw old political assumptions out the window and to consider that Democrats could buck historic trends this cycle.”
The states with the biggest surges in women registering after the Dobbs decision were deep-red Kansas, where abortion rights triumphed in a referendum last month, and Idaho, Bonier writes:
Key battleground states also showed large increases, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio, which are all facing statewide races in which the fate of abortion access could be decided in November.
🧮 By the numbers: N.Y. Times Upshot found (subscription) that in 10 states with available voter registration data, women registering to vote rose by about 35% after the decision, compared with the month before the leak of a draft opinion. Men ticked up by 9%.
The fetus-fondling gawd-bothering Republicans FAFO what happens when you make women angry. The midterms are gonna be LIT.