2022 Horse Race Update: NRSC Is Changing Their Bets On Senate Races

Horse Race Reporting: Comin’ round the bend…

Tiger Beat on the Potomac (thanks Charlie!) morning email thingie has an intriguing item: the Republicans are cutting back on ads for their nutty senate candidates.

I wonder why?

TOP TALKER — The NRSC is pulling back more than $10 million in ad reservations in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Arizona, “a likely sign of financial troubles,” NYT’s Shane Goldmacher reports. “The states where ad reservations have been canceled are home to three of the nation’s most competitive Senate contests.”

But, but, but: The NRSC’s CHRIS HARTLINEpushed back hard on the story: “Nothing has changed about our commitment to winning in all of our target states,” he said, claiming that the money was being shifted from group’s independent expenditure unit, which faces fewer spending restrictions, to campaign-coordinated and “hybrid” ads that enjoy more favorable rates from broadcasters. Goldmacher’s story notes that “some of the money saved by canceling reservations now would eventually be used to rebook advertising time in coordination with the Senate campaigns.”

I’ve done the calculations, and I hope I carried the 2 correctly, but it seems to me that if Team Evil wants to put the gavel back in amply be-chinned Mitch McConnell’s paws, they have to win at least two Senate races in these 4 states (and we note that Fetterman and Kelly are up by 10 pts over their competitors so pretty much those are Sure Things):

  • $7.5 million from Pennsyltucky
  • $3.5 million from the Terrible Sand Kingdom of Arizonastan
  • $2.5 million from RoJoLand, er, Wisconsin
  • $1.5 million from It Stays in Vegas

Now what makes this even weirder (is too a wurd!) is that they have been shifting money to senate races in the Blue States of Warshington and Colorado.  CO Sen. Michael Bennet and WA Sen. Patty Murray are up over their challengers by 5pts, so yeah, I can see why they would rather take a Blue long shot than a certain failure in Oz (see what I did there?)

I’m not named Nate, but if I was a betting man, I’d say that the rumored Red Tidal Wave has already crested, and the ripple is all that’s left.

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3 Responses to 2022 Horse Race Update: NRSC Is Changing Their Bets On Senate Races

  1. Jimmy T says:

    Throw the bums out…

    Liked by 2 people

  2. They have every assurance that the oligarchs and their untraceable, and unaccountable PAC money will fill the gap.

    Liked by 2 people

  3. roket says:

    Expect accusations of rampant voter fraud in those 4 states, also too.

    Liked by 2 people

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