Today the process to confirm Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court, and the betting window wagers that the Republicans on the Senate Judiciary Committee will unanimously oppose her nomination. Even at 50:50 her nomination will move to the full Senate where she will win.
Tiger Beat explains the arcane Inside Baseball / Kabuki Theater, if you are interested:
THE FINAL SCOTUS STRETCH — The White House and Senate Democrats expect Biden’sSupreme Court nominee, KETANJI BROWN JACKSON, to be confirmed by the end of this week. The final two Republicans still in play, Sens. MITT ROMNEY (Utah) and LISA MURKOWSKI (Alaska), could announce how they plan to vote as soon as today.
Clinching a new Supreme Court justice is a big moment for any president. But given the historic nature of Jackson’s nomination, this will be an even bigger deal for Biden.
Jackson is still making the rounds with senators she hasn’t yet met one on one. In the meantime, the Judiciary Committee will take up the nomination this morning, with a full panel vote expected by day’s end.
How it’ll work … At 10 a.m., Chair DICK DURBIN (D-Ill.) and ranking member CHUCK GRASSLEY (R-Iowa) will give opening statements. Then senators will talk — for many hours — about Jackson’s nomination.
Aides say they’re anticipating a full day since there are few rules to limit debate in committee. Demcrats and Jackson allies have been preparing for Republicans to bring up the largely refuted attack on Jackson’s record on child pornography cases. As one committee aide put it Sunday night: “I would anticipate that being a very central topic of debate.”
How it’ll shake out … Aides expect a tied vote in committee, which would force Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER to file a motion to bring the nomination to the Senate floor with four hours of debate.
That discharge vote by the full Senate is expected late today, and it could reveal how the final vote will go — i.e. if Romney and Murkowski haven’t announced their positions by then, their vote could provide a strong clue.
Senate aides are expecting Schumer to file cloture Tuesday, triggering up to 30 hours of debate on the nomination. We’re told final confirmation could come as early as Thursday.
How it will play in the midterms … Saddled by Biden’s low poll numbers and a stalled social change agenda, Democratic strategists are eager to point to Jackson’s confirmation as a bona fide achievement heading into the election.
Reason for skepticism … The Supreme Court hasn’t been a big motivator for Democratic voters in recent election cycles. But Democratic officials are hopeful a number of things will change that: DONALD TRUMP’s engineering of a 6-3 conservative majority, the ensuing threat to abortion rights and, after this week, base enthusiasm about the first Black woman joining the court.
Have your Quatloos ready and place your bets in the comments. And remember: you are betting on Willard having a spine and Murksowski’s political calculus in a re-election year.