Prepping The Big Lie 2

ex-Prznint Karen

“I am not a believer in the integrity of Virginia’s elections, lots of bad things went on, and are going on. The way you beat it is to flood the system and get out and vote.” —Hair Füror

Hair Füror is laying to groundwork for more riots if his candidate, Glenn Youngkin does not win. And for the record we note that Hair Füror lost Virginia by more than 10 points in the 2020 Goat Rodeo.

Our Pals at Electoral-Vote have an analysis of interest if you are following the Virginia race:

The only major competitive statewide election this year is the Virginia gubernatorial election, which will finish tomorrow.The Hill describes it as “tight as a tick.” If one averages the past six public polls, former governor Terry McAuliffe (D) is leading by 0.8%, which is to say either candidate could win. We also don’t know if there is a differential nonresponse (again), with Republicans refusing to talk to the pollsters. Earlier this year McAuliffe was way ahead, so the trend favors Glenn Youngkin (R). But will his gains be enough?

One indicator we could have but don’t is early voting. Three-quarters of a million voters have already cast their ballots. That is about 30% of the total turnout in the 2017 gubernatorial election. It is also four times the early turnout in 2017. Traditionally Democrats like to vote early and Republicans like to vote on Election Day. In 2020, Joe Biden carried the state by 10 points, but Trump won Election Day by 25 points. However, Virginia does not register voters by party, so we don’t know which party is doing better at early voting. Probably it is the Democrats, but by how much? Youngkin has urged Republicans to vote early, so the mix this year could be different from usual.

So what we do know is that the VA electorate is YUGELY energized. But we interrupted.

One thing we do know is where the early votes are coming from. About a third are from Northern Virginia, a Democratic stronghold. According to one model, 11.5% of early ballots are from Black voters, higher than their 8.5% early voting total in 2017, so it looks like Black voters, who skew heavily Democratic, are enthusiastic about voting. There appears to be a small dropoff among white noncollege voters compared to 2017. Twice as many young (18-29) voters voted early this year compared to 2021, but their share of the total vote is just half of what it was in 2017. In contrast, older voters have voted early in droves this year. Of course, history is only a rough guide and none of this says anything about who will show up in person tomorrow.

…and it goes on from there, and worth your time if you are following this race.

Related: Tiger Beat on the Potomac (thanks Charlie) reports:

AND THE FINAL SPRINT — Greetings from Loudoun County, Va., where we spent Sunday evening jogging along with an Allbirds-clad TERRY MCAULIFFEas he campaigned in Leesburg’s annual Halloween parade.

A parade route is to the Macker what snow is to a polar bear: his natural environment.

McAuliffe spent so much time taking selfies and filling kids’ bags with candy that at least a football field of space opened up between his team and the floats in front of them.

Lots of corny jokes were told. “Let’s get my wife jealous!” he said before snapping a picture with his arm around someone’s grandmother.

“Ahhhhhh!” he fake recoiled every time he encountered someone in a scary costume.

He was adept at identifying anti-McAuliffe voters. “Who is this redhead’s mom?” he asked about a wee tike to whom he gave a fistful of candy. When the child’s mother was identified, it activated his GLENN YOUNGKIN-supporter radar. She looked away and McAuliffe jogged on by. Asked by a reporter if she was not a big McAuliffe fan, the woman buried her face in her hands and shook her head. She was a member of NoVa’s hottest swing vote: parents for Youngkin.

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2 Responses to Prepping The Big Lie 2

  1. She was a member of NoVa’s hottest swing vote: parents racist White Folks for Youngkin.

    There FTFT…

    Liked by 1 person

  2. glitterbug says:

    It appears Murphy is cruising to re-election here in NJ. I voted for him 3 weeks ago. Used the County Board of Elections drop box in front of the Municipal Building. DeJoy wasn’t getting his mitts on my ballot. First time I’ve dug into the weeds of the school board race to find the Blue Team.
    It’s technically non-partisan. Right.
    I have no kids so I paid it no attention before..

    Like

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