Republican’s Have A Problem

GOP Political Machinery

The media is filled with lots of arm-chair quarterbacking about the California recall and lessons learned. Our pals at Electoral-Vote did the work and gathered the headlines:

The dust has settled a bit in California, so lists of takeaways are starting to pop up. Here are a few of them:


  • A strict pandemic policy is a winner
  • Will Elder run against Newsom in 2022?
  • Lessons from California may not apply elsewhere where Elder is not on the ballot
  • In the end, Elder didn’t claim the election was stolen and refuse to concede
  • The huge cost of the election is prompting calls for recall reform

Los Angeles Times:

  • Does Newsom have a mandate now to push liberal policies?
  • Will constant claims of rigged elections depress turnout for Republicans in the future?
  • COVID-19 put Newsom in jeopardy but also saved him
  • Larry Elder was not a good candidate and Newsom would love to face him in 2022
  • Recall reform is likely to happen now

Roll Call:

  • Republicans started this and they got crushed
  • A big win in California doesn’t protect the Democrats from losing the House in 2022
  • Republicans might not even need Orange County to take over the House in 2022
  • The threat of a Trumpist winning is still a powerful motivator for Democrats
  • Being famous doesn’t mean you win—just ask Larry Elder
  • Elder won’t have any impact on 2022
  • The polls were pretty good and in a tough election to poll
  • The SurveyUSA poll was an outlier, but it caused people to panic even though outliers are normal
  • Most of the political handicappers got it spot on

The Hill:

  • Newsom’s margin was even bigger than expected
  • Donald Trump is hurting the GOP
  • Vaccinated voters are pro-vaccine
  • Mobilization of voters still works and has implications for 2022
  • Polling averages are better than individual polls
  • Newsom is back in the national conversation
  • Democrats have the cover they need to pursue recall reform

Gov. Newsom says that Democrats needs to “lean in” on COVID-19 prevention:

“So, what I’m saying here is, be affirmative. Don’t be timid. Lean in. Because at the end of the day, it’s not just about formal authority of setting the tone and tenor on masks — on vaccines and masks. But it’s the moral authority that we have: that we’re on the right side of history and we’re doing the right thing to save people’s lives.”

…but here’s my blunt assessment: it was more about Trump/Elder than it was about Gavin Newsom & the Trump-Virus. And because this was wide-open and not machine politics, the Republican base chose their preferred candidate and the Republicans didn’t have a chance. Tiger Beat on the Potomac (thanks Charlie) says:

Elder drew more than five times as many votes as his nearest Republican rival, former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, in the initial vote tally.

The Pod Save Whatevs guys’ email thingie:

  • Unfortunately, we can’t count on landslides to smother the zombie Big Lie in most elections, and it’s not about to fade away: In a new CNN poll, 59 percent of GOP voters said that believing Trump won the 2020 election is an important part of being a Republican. And while GOP candidates casually fold Donald Trump’s fraud narrative into their own campaigns, Trump is going around systematically endorsing Big Lie-promoters for secretary of state positions, in preparation to take another stab at stealing the presidency in 2024. Not great!

That ass-kicking Elder got was a proxy for Trump; the Republicans have a YUGE problem if the base keeps nominating nut jobs that can easily be lashed to Hair Füror.


This entry was posted in 2022 Pie Fight, 2024 Goat Rodeo, Lord Damp Nut, The Russian Usurper, NeoCons, The Big Lie, The Coup Klux Klan (Republicans), The New Confederacy, Wingnuttia, Y'all Qaeda and Talibanicans. Bookmark the permalink.

12 Responses to Republican’s Have A Problem

  1. Vaccinated voters are pro-vaccine

    Oh The Hill, I knew I can always count on you to point out the subtle, hard-to-discern elements of our horse race “democracy”.

    Liked by 4 people

    • Ten Bears says:

      That’s not necessarily true. I was “vaccine cautious” when vaccine cautious wasn’t cool. Mr Natural, beard, sandals and all. I’ve never had a flu shot. Never saw the sense in combatting a live virus with a live virus. Think pretty much all of it is a money making scam for the pharmaceuticals. That said …

      1) It’s not like I haven’t been vaxxed: as an Army brat I was hit with everything they had (and then some) in the late fifties, and again when I enlisted in the early seventies; and 2) I did the research: this is bigger than the bat-bug. The nRMA architecture not only teaches our bodies something we don’t know ~ odd that, humans are the only animals in the animal kingdom whose bodies don’t know enough to recognize spiked viruses as a threat and manufacture anti-bodies to combat them, we have to be taught, tricked ~ but it extends beyond the the trump-flu, the covid19, the trump-virus. Research shows promise in combatting other spiked viruses (natch), flus, malaria, hiv, potentially my wife’s cancer. We are teaching our bodies something new, it is an evolutionary iteration. Those that don’t get the shot, are not.

      Not to mention I got really sick. Really, really, sick. Was thinking about thinking about going to see a “doctor”. Was only able to determine that what I had was the trump-flu was by the side-effects of the shots mimicking what I went through for six weeks at the end of 2019; a hypothesis gone theory when I was hit with the Darwin variant this past July.

      People don’t get the joke: Mr Natural, but I’ve been know to have a cheeseburger or two … vaccine hesitant, vaccine cautious, whatever, I never-the-less got vaxxed.

      And I am still vaccine cautious …


      • Wesley Sandel says:

        Jesus wept – inoculations aren’t live viruses. You have no idea what you are talking about.


      • Ten Bears says:

        I’ve forgotten more than you’ll ever know, fuck off asshole


      • odd that, humans are the only animals in the animal kingdom whose bodies don’t know enough to recognize spiked viruses as a threat and manufacture anti-bodies to combat them, we have to be taught, tricked

        [it doesn’t work that way…none of that works that way!.gif]

        We DO recognize coronaviruses as threats; the normal way any animal with an immune system recognizes a new antigen is by getting sick with the disease. We’re the only animals to ever figure out how to recognize them without getting sick. (Vaccination)

        Vaccination isn’t “tricking” your immune system, it’s more of a personal trainer for your immune system “Here, this what the target looks like…go for it!”

        Part of the problem with things like coronavirus (and zika, ebola, and many many others) is that in their natural reservoirs (bats in the case of coronaviruses) both organisms (the natural hosts and the viruses) have evolved to a stalemate.

        The virus is carried by the bats and reproduces at low levels in them, and the bat’s immune systems recognize the viruses and deal with them; in this case by recognizing common features to a host of different coronaviruses a more generalized low level immune response.

        But because they don’t get really sick, the full bore “RED ALERT” [Star Trek Klaxon] immune response isn’t triggered.

        Side note: (a significant portion of ‘us getting sick with stuff’ is our immune response to the disease: fever, inflammation, etc, are products of our immune systems fighting off the infection, not the infection itself.

        There are a LOT of moving parts to your immune systems, of varying degrees of response, and not all of them are invoked when triggered, otherwise we’d die from hay fever and such.

        This is what most scientists believe happened in the 1918 flu epidemic; people died not so much because they had the flu, but because their immune systems were stimulated to a massive over-response, and the damage to the body was collateral damage. Think normal immune response == dealing with a fly with a flyswatter. 1918 flu == dealing with a fly with a pound of C4.)

        So we have these pockets in the word where there’s this balance between viruses and hosts.

        (note: this works with humans too! Early explorers of the New World…likely Columbus’s crew, broght syphylis to Europ, where there was ZERO natural immunity. It spread like wildfire and was very lethatl much more quickly than it is today. Of course we brought measles and smallpox HERE, which did the same thing to the immunologically naive native Americans)

        The the hyoo-mans come barging in cutting shit down displacing and trapping animals and generally coming into contact with viruses almost all of us have never encountered before and voila: COVID-19. The virus doesn’t have any of the bat controls in humans so it goes wild, and the humans immune systems get kicked into overdrive by the massive signaling of cell damage from the virus reproducing in the body.

        Eventually, when enough people get sick or vaccinated against COVID it’ll probably settle down to a low-level incidence of winter respiratory ailments.

        Now the flu, well the flu is an entirely different critter; they swap genes like kids swapping pokemon cards in their natural hosts (domesticated animals in China, mainly pigs and poultry, and when they’re in close contact with humans, the reshuffled flu gets passed on; our current vaccine regimen is based on surveillance to identify the annual emergent strains, then quickly grow the virus in culture (we use fertilized chicken eggs, mainly) and use the killed virus (not live) to teach our immune systems what this years pokemon deck virus looks like.

        The mRNA vaccines show great promise towards a more universal flu vaccine that might speed this process up and generate long-lived immunity to all the flue viruses.

        Liked by 2 people

      • MDavis says:

        I’ve recently read in fairly reputable sites that the old standard was killed viruses or weakened viruses, and that the mRNA is a relatively new wrinkle in vaccination technology, around 20 years in development thus faar, which got its first live rollout for COVID-19.
        Our main doctor told us it was a killed virus vaccine. Which is the one not available in our county. It is so “sad” to have a dork for a doctor.


  2. beckymaenot says:

    Trump proxies will only keep getting beat in wider audience type situations. In the crazy world of Trumplandia- like where MGT is from- they will continue to be supported and elected.

    Damn- I want out of the south so bad. I can’t wait for the day when the husband decides to retire from his Atlanta based company so we can move to a saner, more blue area. Sure- my county is blue- but the majority of GA is Trumpville and I am so fucking tired of it. Gov. Kemp sucks. The response to covid here sucks. Frankly- the racist tenor of my white supremacist neighbors is just plain disheartening. Spend 5 minutes on NextDoor and you will see what I mean. Sure- they elected 2 D’s to the Senate and I am grateful, but will they be able to hold on to those seats now that GA has passed voter suppression laws? I wonder.

    Liked by 2 people

  3. Pingback: “Vaccinated voters are pro-vaccine … “ | Homeless on the High Desert

  4. lisahgolden says:

    I’m happy about the Newsome win and what it says about the hill the Republicans have to climb.
    I’m not going to lie. I am shook about what the obstacles will be for the midterms and beyond. The gerrymandering here in Indiana is exactly what you’d expect it to be.

    Liked by 1 person

    • beckymaenot says:

      I’m worrying about midterms and beyond also due to the new laws taking effect all around the Red States. The previous administration was perilous for an assortment of reasons- and with some of the information just now coming out about just how dangerous it really was- well, I am anxious to NOT repeat that bullshit 2016-2020.


  5. beckymaenot says:

    BDR- I got to tell you – I seriously appreciate your breakdown above. I wasn’t able to reply direct to your comment- too far down thread I think. But- Thanks. No sarcasm. Serious gratitude here.


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