Guys, today’s the day! Will California keep Gov. Newsom or elect an opposite-world Lord Damp Nut knock-off, Larry Elder? If you are a junkie, watch for the big population centers in Southern California for the votes to come in, especially Los Angeles County.
We are gonna make an educated guess here that Newsom will win in pretty much landslide fashion, gonna guess it will be somewhere near 60% of the votes.
Some numbers from the ballots:
4,509,992 Democratic ballots
2,233,539 Republican ballots
1,979,423 Independent/third party ballots
8,722,954 Total ballots
And now the polling:
88% of Democrats want to keep Newsome
85% of Republicans want to throw him out
53% of independents/third-party voters want to keep him
If those numbers hold,
3,968,793 D votes are Newsom’s (88% of the 4M+)
1,049,094 I votes are Newsom’s (53% of the 1.9M+)
5,0178,887 Are likely Newsom’s.
Allegedly 15% of the Republicans want to keep him, too, so that 2M+ number will be smaller. My guess is that Newsome will lap the recall total.
Second wager: no matter how decisively the vote goes (for Newsom), Hair Füror et al will claim voter fraud.
Third wager: no matter what Newsom’s victory is, Politico (and the elite DC Media) will spin it as Good New For John McCain! and tell us why Joe Biden is doomed.
Wagers accepted in the comments, Quatloos only.
UPDATE 1: Not that it was hard, but it looks like we got a two-fer:
UPDATE 2: I should have included this twitter thread in the original post:
If you know Cali politics, she nails it.