Happy Hour News
I’m not a data scientist, so as the Census data is released, I’m enjoying other people’s analysis of it. But here is the big take-away as I interpret it: the trope of demographics is destiny is arriving with a thud on the New Confederacy’s doorstep even as we speak (or, more accurately, write this):
We’ll cut to the chase and list the five:
- The white population is shrinking
- Every state got more diverse
- Most minority groups are growing naturally (BIRTHS, not immigration)
- Population growth is slowing substantially
- The suburbs are growing (but actually the cities; this is after all The Hill.)
What they are not saying is that rural areas actually shrank or were flat:
Overall, metropolitan areas grew by 9% compared with only 1% growth for smaller areas. Less than half of the nation’s 3,143 counties saw any population increases over the past decade while 81% of metropolitan areas grew…
Even in rapidly growing states, such as Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Texas, the census found that rural counties on average lost people while urban and suburban counties outpaced expected growth.
So long, Possum Hollar:
Washington, D.C., was the only location in the U.S. where the white share of the population increased in the last decade, according to newly released data from the Census Bureau.
Thirty-eight percent of the D.C. population was white in 2020, according to the Census Bureau, up from the 34.8 percent recorded in 2010. That change represents a 3.2 percent increase over the past 10 years.
All 50 states in the U.S. saw the white share of their populations decrease. Washington state tracked the largest drop, moving from 72.5 percent in 2010 to 63.8 percent in 2020, an 8.7 percent change.
So as I read it, it might be harder for the GOP to rat-eff the electoral maps to make safe districts for themselves. I’m not saying it is impossible to gerrymander the eff out of it, but it will be harder to keep it that way if the trends continue. As the 2020 Goat Rodeo showed us, yesterday’s safe Republican district is today’s battleground.
UPDATE 1: Gonna stick this here –