Politico will be updating their Ohio election charts tonight as the vote comes in so you can “watch data roll in from both parties’ internecine battles in real time.”
Our pals over at Electoral-Vote have the Racing Forum and Jocky Stats for us:
To start, OH-11 is deep, deep blue (D+30); the seat opened when Marcia Fudge accepted appointment as Joe Biden’s Secretary of Housing and Urban Development. Fudge is herself a Black woman, and she is going to be succeeded by a Black woman. The question is: Which one? Nina Turner is very progressive, is closely aligned with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), and initially seemed to be running away with the election. However, the Congressional Black Caucus (CBC) rallied its forces around the more moderate Shontel Brown. CBC members have campaigned hard for Brown, touting her as someone who would honor “the rich history” of their group, and who would not rebel against the group while “trying to make a name for themselves.” Turner and her surrogates have fired back, arguing that the CBC has grown myopic and is hostile to new ideas. In other words, it’s been ugly. There was a time when Turner led Brown by 30 points in the polls, but the latest has Turner up just 5 points (41% to 36%), with 5% favoring other candidates, and 18% undecided. So, it could be either candidate’s race.
My friends on Black Twitter have been Shontel Brown enthusiasts for weeks if not months. My quatloos are on Brown.
Meanwhile, OH-15 is red, but nowhere near as read as OH-11 is blue; it’s R+9. This seat came open when Steve Stivers jumped ship to run the Ohio Chamber of Commerce. The thing that everyone will be watching for is how well the candidate backed by Donald Trump, namely lobbyist Mike Carey, does (especially since other prominent Republicans have backed other candidates). The good news for Carey is that the only poll of the race had him leading the field, with 20% of the vote, and several competitors lurking in the neighborhood of 10%. The bad news is that the poll was done by the pro-Trump polling firm of Fabrizio Lee & Associates, was conducted back in June, and found that 44% of respondents were undecided. So, who knows how big Carey’s lead is, or even if he has a lead at all?
Got that? Hair Füror endorsed Mike Carey, so if Carey goes down, so too does Hair Füror’s political capitol. This is why you should pay attention to this one!
My quatloos are on not-Carey.
Anyway, the windows are open for wagers. If you are from Ohio, give us your learned opinion.