We cast our bets yesterday, and it looks like the house odds-on favorite won:
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) on Tuesday said he will not support bipartisan legislation for the 9/11-style commission to probe the Jan. 6 Capitol riot.
“Given the political misdirections that have marred this process, given the now duplicative and potentially counterproductive nature of this effort, and given the Speaker’s shortsighted scope that does not examine interrelated forms of political violence in America, I cannot support this legislation,” McCarthy said in a statement released Tuesday morning.
K-Mac really is bad at his job. As you may recall he directed John Katko (R-NY) on what/how to negotiate, and got it. And now he has to run-away from it and leave Katko holding the bag. We assume K-Mac got put on blast by Hair Füror.
Bet #2 is up next: will it pass the House anyway (on strictly party-line vote)? The House odds are Yes.
UPDATE 1: Politico/Tiger Beat morning email thingie is sussing the odds, also/too –
SENATE GOP COULD KILL BIPARTISAN JAN. 6 COMMISSION —Burgess Everett and Marianne LeVine talked to a bunch of Senate Republicans on Monday and found that many of them were signaling they might not vote for the 9/11-style commission proposed by a bipartisan group of House members.
“The commission will slow us down from some of the things we need to do,” Sen. ROY BLUNT (R-Mo.), a McConnell ally, told our colleagues. “I’m no fan of the commission.”
McConnell has refused so far to weigh in. Republicans in the Senate want to see how the idea plays out in the House first.
UPDATE 2: The “other” TBotP email thingie:
HOW ABOUT THAT GOP SUPPORT?: House Republicans are not whipping against the Jan. 6 bills, but privately some are telling my colleagues that they oppose the commission and the supplemental spending bills. While my colleagues expect most Republicans to be against the commission, several Democrats tell Sarah they hope 10-15 Republicans will end up voting for its formation.
Per Burgess, Marianne and Mel: Several Republicans “on Monday evening expressed worries about how the commission will be formed, whether it should have a broader scope and if it might hinder the work of congressional committees that are already probing the pro-Trump riot at the Capitol. With the use of the filibuster power, the Senate GOP can demand changes or bottle up the legislation altogether.”
So far, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) have declined to endorse the deal between House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Rep. John Katko (R-N.Y.), a moderate Republican who voted to impeach Trump.
Banks, the head of the Republican Study Committee, told your host: “I’m for a bipartisan commission, and it seems like we’re moving in the right direction.”
On the supplemental, some on the Senate side say they have hesitations about passing the security funding before the commission can actually produce its findings. But House Dems have firmly pushed back: “I don’t think we can wait for the results to pass the supplemental,” Rep. Jason Crow (D-Col.) told Sarah. “This isn’t rocket science, either. Securing a facility? This is not tough stuff to do. I did it in Iraq and Afghanistan… I think we have to do it very fast.”