If you are still thinking about going to or bringing in people for Thanksgiving, find your county on the map and enter the number of people you are planning on interacting with, and the software will give you a risk assessment.
For instance, here in Seattle/King County/WA, if I were to have my usual Thanksgiving party with about 15 guests there is about 26% chance that someone would have Covid.
UPDATE 1: the MIT newsletter thingie approves of this tool:
What’s the actual risk? This helpful dashboard shows estimated odds that a member of your holiday party will bring the covid-19 virus to dinner. If you run the numbers, there’s a 5% chance that someone at a party of 20 in Maine, near where Antonio lives, will have the virus. But a gathering of just 10 people in the hot spot of Sioux Falls, South Dakota brings a 67% chance. Even with drastically reduced holiday travel this year, Americans will be moving and mingling by the millions, and taking the virus with them. It’s easy to see how Thanksgiving could turn into a nationwide superspreading event that just makes things worse.