Put No Faith In National Polling

The South Rose Again With Hair Führer
(Hat tip: Scissorhead Kilwer via Twitter)

Last Goat Rodeo (2016 edition), we paid a lot of attention to political polling and boy weren’t we surprised on that fateful night when the mango-hued shitgibbon stood on his hind legs are brayed victory, and the 4th Reich swept into office? (Flags reference: Believe them when they tell you who they are.)

Anyway, I vowed to learn from that mistake. National Polls absolutely mean nothing: we don’t vote that way, and the anti-democratic Electoral College certainly doesn’t. We’re also months and months away from actually voting and a lot can happen.

So when you read about polls like the NYTimes one today say:

Mr. Biden is currently ahead of Mr. Trump by 14 percentage points, garnering 50 percent of the vote compared with 36 percent for Mr. Trump. That is among the most dismal showings of Mr. Trump’s presidency, and a sign that he is the clear underdog right now in his fight for a second term.

Mr. Trump has been an unpopular president for virtually his entire time in office. He has made few efforts since his election in 2016 to broaden his support beyond the right-wing base that vaulted him into office with only 46 percent of the popular vote and a modest victory in the Electoral College.

…don’t put down your guard. There is no certainty there at all. Look, until he kills all of his base (and a God is my waitress, that’s the kind of loyalty he demands and watching those misfits in Arizonastan yesterday —maskless and check-to-jowl spraying their droplets— they are willing to do it for him), this thing is going to be a fight until the bitter, deadly end. Don’t let your guard down for an instant.

There is no certainty in Politics, and with crooks like Lord Damp Nut and Low Barr, anything can happen.

Keep yourselves healthy; our best fight depends on us overwhelmingly to vote these mothereffers out of office.

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15 Responses to Put No Faith In National Polling

  1. Dennis Cole says:

    TG – this sounds like a deliberate tasty tidbit: “*(and a God is my waitress….instead of your usual “as Gawd (or Dawg) is my waitress.” Must be some pretty swank restaurants up there in Seattle, or else the “god business” is suffering like the rest of the Economy, and even lesser gods and demi-gods have to seek work as servile wait staff. Or are the tips really that good?

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  2. David H Lippman says:

    I have disliked polling since the 2016 fiasco, and as a student of history, I know about the 1936 and 1948 idiocies.

    I prefer what the bookies have to say:

    https://electionbettingodds.com/?fbclid=IwAR3qbxVwXW-j7S9bb1-EvmpsgO2EcV2DqO6urmlLc8YN6aLBN1j2Kq-cSvY

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  3. A reminder. LDN “won” by about a total of 80,000 votes nationwide in the EC because of Republican Gerrymandering and voter supression, and he got that close only because of Comey’s October Suprise Turd in the Punchbowl.

    The polls pretty accurately predicted Clinton’s poular vote win.

    I’m not taking anything for granted this year, though. It is high time to burn the GOP to the ground and salt the ashes…which means VOTE, MOTHERFUCKERS, VOTE!!!

    Liked by 3 people

  4. I have some space for hope. Just watched All In and Chris Hayes was talking to Adam Serwer about his latest article in the Atlantic, about how trump is floundering because the only now weird trick he has for winning elections is virulent misogyny and racism , and those just don’t work against Handsome Joe. And it’s not just trump…

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/06/trump-cant-figure-out-how-attack-biden/613402/

    Liked by 2 people

    • only one weird trick, duh.

      Dog only knows how I manage to typo the typos I typo!

      Like

      • tengrain says:

        I’m telling you: my keyboard is defective. (I’ll back you up if you back me up, OK?)

        Rgds,

        TG

        Liked by 1 person

      • Dennis Cole says:

        BDR – You mean you have a Dyslexi-writer Super-Plus?! Kile mine, xecactly! They’re only sorta-kinda rare, but you do see usage of the cheaper models on a lot of Social Media platforms, like Cafebook.

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  5. Chris Papalia says:

    Yes, the polling doesn’t matter, but no, it’s not because the polls are national and you vote local.
    And no, it isn’t because there are still four more months until the election.

    The polls don’t count BECAUSE YOU AREN’T GOING TO HAVE A FREE AND FAIR ELECTION.

    You already know this; you just saw it in Georgia where 10 million people were provided with only a couple of hundred polling stations, and equipment that “amazingly” broke down.
    https://www.npr.org/2020/06/09/873054620/long-lines-voting-machine-issues-plague-georgia-primary

    You know this because the GOP is hiring people to attend voting centres and intimidate potential Democrat voters:
    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/gop-recruits-army-poll-watchers-fight-voter-fraud-no-can-n1217391

    You already know this because Trump has been saying it for months now, and for the last few weeks has been shouting it: he will suppress postal voting; you can expect his supporters will employ every method they can to prevent voting by mail; from making it impossible even to register to vote:

    to delaying the distribution of postal ballots, to under-providing for counting of postal ballots and halting the count before all the ballots are counted.

    You know this. You know Trump. This man has cheated at everything his entire life. And you know that this is his supporters too.

    People who talk rosily about how the military won’t back him if he refuses to accept the result if he loses have missed the point entirely; Trump will accept the result because the result is going to be rigged. He will accept the result because he already controls the machinery necessary to declare him the winner. He has the appellate courts, he has the supreme court, he has enough state legislatures and he has the federal senate; come November Donald J Trump will be declared the winner.

    And America is going to explode.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Dennis Cole says:

      Chris – that’s a rosy forecast, right in there with some of my own. My gas will be flabbered, so I will be flabbergasted if he doesn’t.

      Which condition makes ME explode.

      Like

  6. roket says:

    Voter turnout determines the end result of all polls. There, I said it.

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  7. buckobear says:

    I would recommend: “On Tyranny: Twenty Lessons from the Twentieth Century“ by Timothy Snyder.

    https://www.supersummary.com/on-tyranny/summary/

    You can read it in an hour or so and it’s worth every minute.
    My favorite bit of advice from it is to vote like it’s the last time you ever will.

    Liked by 1 person

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