Comin’ Round The Bend…

(Courtesy of seekrit scissorhead @NamelessCynic of the Tweeters)

This is a big development:

WASHINGTON — Former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., lead the Democratic presidential field, according to the national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll’s opening measure of the 2020 horse race.

If you go to the article, they have a simple graph that ranks the candidates thusly:

  1. Biden 26%
  2. Warren 19%
  3. Harris 13%
  4. Sanders 13%
  5. Buttigieg  7%
  6. Everyone else is 2% or less.

So what can we discern (yeah, I know, we’re ages away from the nomination being in the bag, etc.) ? I mean besides that Biden is still the lead dog? This is what I immediately see:

  • Biden really screwed the pooch in that debate to have dropped from a commanding lead to being within striking distance of #2.
  • Warren is taking voters away from Sanders, too – they are after the same progressive voters; she’s getting them, he’s losing them.
  • Harris has momentum; her attack on Biden really boosted her candidacy and damaged his candidacy.
  • Sanders is the only candidate to have dropped in the ranking. He’s gone from #2 to a tie for #3 (or #4, depending), which is significant. America, it seems, only wants one old white man in the race, and at the moment it ain’t him.

As the 2020 Goat Rodeo races ahead, the candidates who get the most media attention are likely to be the candidates who will gain the most traction in the polls. The early wagering is that the eventual nominee will be one of these five, and that the rest of the goats will drop out, probably before the Iowa caucuses.

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3 Responses to Comin’ Round The Bend…

  1. ming says:

    I have to say that I’m not feeling the Bern or Joementum theses days, but I would welcome any of the other three of the top five. However, I can just imagine the screeching from the right about a president Warren, Harris, or Buttigieg. Uppity women and a gay guy… what is the world coming to. It’s going to be ugly no matter what, so lets get ready to rumble.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Astamari says:

    A couple of thoughts: First, Tom Steyer is going to piss away several million dollars that would be much better spent trying to secure the Senate and still end up getting out of the race in at most a couple of months time. Second, we’re not really seeing anything new from Bernie 2.0. He’s still Mr. Shouty and Mr. Promise the World But No Specifics, Please. Also, he’s not an actual Democrat (don’t really know how much that actual matters, though). Third, Warren brings decades of tough and clear policysplaining with a distinctive personal style and ability to capture audiences. She could easily be a credible nominee except for the usual fear of having a woman nominee (even though we had an actual successful one already (by popular vote).

    Fourth, Harris is the real conundrum. She is a clear and forceful debater who can also be very funny. She’s a woman of color though she hasn’t really captured the African-American vote (yet). Her proposals aren’t as detailed (or quite as progressive) as Warren’s but she’s also younger and could straddle the moderate to progressive voter strata. It’s kind of hers to lose, I think.


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