Anyone Wanna Bet Some Quatloos?

Weaponized Pelosi
(Idea stolen without shame from the much-missed Zaius Nation)

Axios  morning email thingie gives us the thumbnail sketch of the shut-down (enigmatic emboldening and bullet points theirs; I’m tired of trying to fix their crap):


“Republican leaders gave up hope [yesterday] of reopening the government before the new year, leaving the border wall impasse to House Democrats as they assume the majority next week,” the N.Y. Times’ Nicholas Fandos and Catie Edmondson report.

  • “House Democrats, who take control on Wednesday, are weighing three approaches to getting funds flowing, none of which would include additional money for President Trump’s proposed wall along the southwestern border.”

Democratic leaders “said they would vote promptly on Jan. 3, hoping to project the image of Democrats as a steadying hand in Washington.”

  • Speaker-designate Pelosi: “We will vote swiftly to reopen government and show that Democrats will govern responsibly in stark contrast to this chaotic White House.”

P.S. More Americans blame President Trump (47%) than congressional Democrats (33%) for the shutdown, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.


About that Reuters poll, it shows that 47% of Americans blames Prznint Stupid for the shutdown, while 33% blame the Democrats. That’s awfully close to Comrade Trump’s base of support from Possum Hollar, innit?

Anyway, here’ the Numbers That Matter!

Only 35% wants $5 billion for Hair Füror’s wall in the bill, and only 25% support shutting down the gubmint.

So even amongst Possum Hollar, less than a third of Wingnuts don’t approve of shutting down the gubmint.

Here’s the MPS prediction: amply be-chinned Mitch McConnell doesn’t want the stink of this on him. Whatever the House does, he’s gonna pass it on to Prznint Stupid and run for cover. His best move is to make it unambiguously clear that this is Comrade Stupid’s shut down.

So what are the 3 options, you ask, to which Axios alludes in their email thingie? Tiger Beat on the Potomac (thanks Charlie!) morning email thingie provides us with answers:

OPTION 1) Pass a full-year CR for the portion of the government that’s shut. That would keep all government agencies at their current funding levels. OPTION 2) Pass a six-bill package, and a CR for Homeland Security until September. This would boost some government agencies’ money, but would keep DHS at its current levels. OPTION 3) Pass the stopgap that the Senate passed, which would fund all government agencies through Feb. 8 at their current levels.

EACH ONE OF THOSE OPTIONS would result in President Donald Trump getting $1.3 billion for border security. No wall. Not $1.6 billion. No slush fund. Nada.

Anyway, expect nothing to happen until January 3 when the Democrats are installed in office, and then we’ll know who is feed crow to the Russian Usurper.

UPDATE 1 From Tiger Beat – further down the newsletter:

A SMART REPUBLICAN HILL HAND MAKES THIS POINT: TRUMP can not get out of here without folding in some way, since he won’t be getting the $5 billion he’s asking for. Why isn’t he folding before the Dem majority takes over, and before it seems like he’s folding to Pelosi?

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11 Responses to Anyone Wanna Bet Some Quatloos?

  1. This is down at “28% crazification factor” levels.

    Like

  2. 9thousandfeet says:

    Numbers shmumbers.
    The one that really matters is what percentage of “likely republican voters” continue to support Der Führer, and that’s been hovering in the high seventies to the low eighties since forever and still is.
    Until that changes the GOP remains a wholly owned subsidiary of Trump Incorporated and Mitch knows it.

    Also, Mitch has a beady eye with laser-like focus on the not-very-small chance that he’ll get to ram through another Kavanaugh onto the SCOTUS at some point during the next two years, so the days of the Senate flying air cover for all kinds of outrageous shit aren’t anywhere close to over yet. That’s not to say that if Mitch sees a clear path to ditching Trump and replacing him with Pence that he wouldn’t do it in a heartbeat, because he sure as hell would. But he would need to be sure that such a move would not cause a schism in the party, and so long as Trump holds on to 80% of their base, that’s a risk he won’t take.

    Also, too, Trump’s overall “approval rating” is still hovering close to 40%, and history says some things about things like that.
    First of all it nudges us to remember that Nixon’s approval rating hovered in the 20th percentile for almost a whole year before the dam started to break.
    It also tells us, more generally, that 40% of an electorate is often enough to allow the fascisti to prevail in their quest to dismantle democratic institutions beyond the possibility of any immediate repair (for reference in this particular situation, see “another Kavanaugh” above), and even when that’s not possible it’s almost always enough to logjam any truly effective functioning of the democratic process.

    So, given that Trump is fucking crazy in ways that no president has ever been, and so long as his hypnotic hold over most of the GOP electoral base continues, my quatloos are riding on the “we ain’t seen nothin’ yet” outcome.

    Liked by 3 people

    • Jim says:

      While I generally agree with your analysis, the 85% approval rate for Trump is really ludicrous. It’s also not clear what the base or denominator of that percentage represents. Is it 85% of the 46% of the vote that he got in 2016 or is it more likely 85% of a more likely 35% of true GOP voters. That would represent a pretty small base and one that basically consists of hardcore racists and xenophobes as well as anti-democratic voters (i.e.nazis). I’m not sure Trump has much of the suburban white Republican voter left and if the economy goes south next year and he continues to act increasingly insane then I think all bets are off (most likely Amendment 25 rather than Article III). If he still manages to stagger into 2020, he will be primaried and if he still manages to become the GOP candidate, he will be slaughtered. (The GOP need to think about becoming just a regional party.)

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  3. Dennis Cole says:

    ‘Twas a bleak December, indeed, and I have no Quatloos to spare – at least, none I wish to wager on such foolishments. People who work for the gubmint, and rely on that regular paycheck are the ones who will be hurt the worst, until this mess gets resolved. And it looks like once again, the Dims will have to ride in to the rescue.

    And Nancy is no spineless mendicant, unlike some OTHER Speaker I could name, but I won’t, since I firmly believe his legacy should be to have none. That’s right – slip quietly away, back to the hinterlands from whence you came, to be totally written out of the history books, while the “grown-ups” roll up their sleeves, and get to work.

    And what we need Yertle McTurtle to do is to stand up bravely at the podium, and announce, “Mr. President, with all due respect, you are not getting your wall at this time. So you need to sign the best mish-mash we could come up with, and reopen the Gov’t.”

    And I’d be willing to wager my final last Quatloo, that would never happen.

    Liked by 3 people

    • Jim says:

      Exactly. But then the next question is whether the House and Senate can override a Trump veto (answer: yes, at least on this bill) and whether the Turtle tells Trump that when he presents the bill of attainders…er…the CR or whatever the Democrats decide.

      Liked by 1 person

  4. David H Lippman says:

    After the 2016 polls, I don’t believe in polls. Period.

    And as far as the shutdown goes, I think that the longer this goes on, the more the Democrats are going to have feel pressure to give in, rather than see government workers in poverty. Trump is a hard-ass by definition. He will get what he wants, like the spoiled brat who screams for his toy over and over and over again, and finally gets it so that Mommy can have some peace in the kitchen.

    The brat learns the vital lesson: Scream like a banshee, behave in an anti-social manner, and YOU WILL GET WHAT YOU WANT. Trump learned that 60 years ago. That’s all he knows.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Jim says:

      See my comment above. Neither the HOR (now and certainly under Nancy Smash) nor the Senate likes this shutdown. So Trump needs to understand that his veto will be overridden and he will have to accept the Congressional fait accompli (at least my analysis).

      Like

      • Dennis Cole says:

        All we need are 13 Rethugs to agree this has gone far enough, and to repudiate Hair Furor. How do we convince them it’s in their best interest – and the interest of the whole country – to do so? Because so far, only a small handful have indicated they’re no longer intimidated by him and his Tweets, but none has of yet made it public that they’re going to grow a pair and stand up to him.

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      • AuroraS says:

        I am certain that the nail in the coffin for Trump (barring major mobilization of US citizens–remember! That’s a thing!) is the day that he pisses off the plutocrats. The Republicans serve their donor class, not us, not Trump. They’re using Trump as their means to an end. As much power and influence Trump thinks he’s had over the years, he’s a joke compared to the plutocrats, and they fucking know it. The Republicans will turn on him in a second if he jeopardizes their relationship with their donors.

        Trump’s never faced consequences for his actions because he’s had enough money and fame to make that go away. Hell, you can get away with sexual assault by just being a prep school white boy whose parents have the money for a decent lawyer. It doesn’t take much. He thinks this is Lifestyles Of The Rich And Famous, he has no idea what he’s dealing with.

        Liked by 1 person

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