Trouble in Wingnuttia

Now try getting out of the tree.

All the political news letters are reporting a big change from The Cook Political Report, the experts on House elections, that the 2018 Pie Fight is turning Blue:

“With 102 days to go, Democrats remain substantial favorites for House control. A big reason: Republicans are defending 42 open or vacant seats, a record since at least 1930. The retirements of Speaker Paul Ryan (WI-01), as well as powerful committee chairs like Reps. Ed Royce (CA-39) and Rodney Frelinghuysen (NJ-11) and popular moderates like Reps. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL-27) and Frank LoBiondo (NJ-02), have given Democrats stellar pickup opportunities.

“Of Republicans’ 42 incumbent-less seats, eight are in districts that voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, and an additional 13 are in districts where President Trump received less than 55 percent. History is working against the GOP in many of those seats: we found that since 1992, in situations when a president’s party was stuck defending an open seat two years after the president failed to carry it, that party has batted zero for 23 keeping it in their column. …

“[I]n a wave environment, 42 seats is a dangerous level of exposure: If Democrats win even eight of the 42 (our current ratings pin eight as Lean/Likely Democratic and four more as Toss Ups), they’ll already be over a third of the way to a majority.”

Axios morning email thingie tells us:

  • “With 102 days to go, Democrats remain substantial favorites for House control. A big reason: Republicans are defending 42 open or vacant seats, a record since at least 1930.” (After the March victory by Democrat Conor Lamb in Pennsylvania, Democrats need to flip 23 seats to take the House.)
  • “Of Republicans’ 42 incumbent-less seats, eight are in districts that voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, and an additional 13 are in districts where President Trump received less than 55 percent.”
  • Killer stat: “[S]ince 1992, in situations when a president’s party was stuck defending an open seat two years after the president failed to carry it, that party has batted zero for 23 keeping it in their column.”
  • “[I]n 20 of the 42 seats, the leading Democrat raised more than the leading Republican between April and June, including in seven of eight Clinton-carried districts (Rep. Dave Reichert’s open WA-08 was the only exception) and 13 of 34 Trump-carried seats.”

And this is the breakdown for the 42 Republican open seats:

  • 3 Likely D
  • 5 Lean D
  • 4 Tossup
  • 7 Lean R
  • 4 Likely R
  • 19 Solid R
This entry was posted in 2018 Pie Fight. Bookmark the permalink.

8 Responses to Trouble in Wingnuttia

  1. Ten Bears says:

    Counting chickens before they hatch.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Condi says:

      Yup – how many of those ‘open’ seats reside in gerrymandered districts? How many in states that have (illegally) pushed through voter suppression “laws” ? I’m tentatively optimistic about the mid-terms, but you’ll find not a speck of irrational exuberance on moi…

      Like

    • tengrain says:

      Yeah, 10Bears, I’m not chilling the champagne yet. —TG

      Like

  2. RWW says:

    One thing to remember about gerrymandering is that it can backfire greatly in a wave election. Gerrymandering dilutes one party’s strength over as many districts as possible in order to win them all in a normal election by a comfortably small margin (making the other party waste lots of votes in losing), but when the other party is riding a wave, those same districts become extremely vulnerable. Not saying this election will turn out that way, but it’s possible

    Like

  3. 9thousandfeet says:

    So the D’s must flip 23 seats, and of the 42 which are on the table, only 8 are “leaning Dem” or better?
    But never fear, if the D’s win those 8 they’ll be over one-third of the way to a majority

    WTF?

    To flip 23 seats off that list, they have to win all 3 “likely D”, then win all 5 “leaning D”, then win all 4 “tossups”, all 7 “lean R” and then 4 more from the “likely R” and “solid R” columns.

    This is supposed to be encouraging?

    Anyway, it’s polling, right? I’m still recovering from the trauma of allowing myself to be persuaded by Professor Hubbard and Sam Wang back in 2016.
    I’m not going to believe a goddam thing until I see it, not now we’re this deep down the rabbit hole. Shit, I’m not even fully confident there will actually BE any mid term elections until I see them happening.

    Like

    • tengrain says:

      9K –

      Those 42 are ONLY the seats that are vacant, without an incumbent. There are plenty of other seats in play.

      Rgds,

      TG

      PS – Agree on all the other points.

      Like

  4. Paul Fredine says:

    it’s still a matter of making sure we get everyone off their asses and into the voting booths. if we don’t/can’t do that all the polls and expectations don’t mean squat. complacency doesn’t win an election. and flipping the house would be nice but i’d really like to see a flip in the senate, but maybe that’s just me.

    Like

Comments are closed.