SCOTUS Pick: Time Will Tell

The Race for the Supreme Court!

This is one of those little data points that puts into sharp relief the clear emergency in which we find ourselves: the age of the Justices on the Supreme Court. And as you can see, at the high end are two of the more liberal Justices, who are likely to be the next to leave the court.

  • Ginsburg : 85
  • Breyer:  79
  • Thomas: 70
  • Alito: 68
  • Sotomayor: 64
  • Roberts: 63
  • Kagan: 58
  • Gorsuch: 50

And now we look at the age of the most-often mentioned replacements for Justice Kennedy, and we see that whoever is picked will be on the court for a very long time:

  • Kavanaugh: 53
  • Hardiman: 53
  • Kethledge: 51
  • Barrett: 46

So whomever is NOT picked today is likely to be on the short list for the next vacancy if Comrade Trump remains in office for another SCOTUS vacancy. Not being ghoulish, but being realistic.

As we’ve discussed before (Civics!), there is almost nothing the Democrats can do to block Prznint Stupid’s nomination. I’ve been reading some legal theory that (Someone? Who? Sen. Schumer?) can sue the US for not enforcing the McConnell Rule—that SCOTUS nominees cannot be considered until after the next election—but that sounds sort of like a Hail Mary pass to me. And methinks it would have to go before the Supreme Court. Awkward!

But the only other alternative is also a Hail Mary Pass. All of these things must happen:

  1. John McCain stays home in Arizona and doesn’t resign.
  2. Red-state Democrats who are up for reelection must stand with the rest of the caucus.
  3. At least one (or more!) Republican Senator(s) breaks ranks and does not vote to confirm whomever Comrade Prznint Stupid nominates.

Ol’ ‘Grain’s Handicapping Cheat Sheet

  1. I don’t think  that McCain is not going to resign, but he might otherwise exit office (again, not being ghoulish, just being realistic) and be replaced before the confirmation.
  2. I cannot see the Blue Dogs doing anything principled. I just cannot. And I think one or more are not going to be re-elected anyway, so it will be a throw-away vote.
  3. Sen. Collins is a good soldier and gets in line every time.  So Murkowski has to vote against the nominee.

So, to sum it up: we’re eff’ed in the dark.

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1 Response to SCOTUS Pick: Time Will Tell

  1. donnah says:

    I’m already past the “probably screwed” and well into “totally screwed” on this. Republicans have been all over this for decades. McConnell has manipulated and schemed and planned with his party how to make it all happen, revisiting old laws and making up his own rules when Obama was President. The Republicans are patient and have gotten what they wanted all along, and their voters will reward them for it.

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