Tiger Beat on the Potomac (thanks Charlie!) morning email thingie has this interesting tidbit:
REPORTER’S NOTEBOOK … FRIDAY’S NEWS that the Cook Political Report was moving REP. DAVE BRAT’S (R-VA.) seat from lean Republican to toss up reminded us of a conversation we recently had with the man who toppled Eric Cantor. Brat’s view on the political climate is not dissimilar from many Republicans these days: the press and pundits were wrong before, so they’re probably wrong again. Many Republicans think that’s a dangerous way of thinking in what they view as a tough political climate.
BRAT represents a district that has long been considered a cradle of conservatism in Virginia. Republicans involved in House races say if Brat is truly in trouble, the House is probably gone. Here’s what Brat had to say about the political climate just before the chamber broke for the July 4 recess:
“In my district? Well that’s what the press said about every Democrat race. Go get the press clips. I was going to lose all three. Always from the press. I was never going to win. So if I listen to you guys I would’ve lost three times. Every press account, every political expert that the press pulls out is always from the left, because they’re from academia. Shocker.” Note: Brat comes from the world of academia too.
“I think I’ll win, based on just keeping my word and the economic issue is going to be it. And you can check my — I think I said that last time, the press said no. Right? …
“I’m going to take it utterly seriously because the stakes are so high.Right? But the Democrat candidates always say they’re running as moderates and they’re not. Right? And that’s what the press — the press doesn’t ask the Democrat candidates where are you at on private property rights. They’re kind of fundamental issues in America.”
And so we turn to The Cook Political Report to see what is happenin’ – HOLY CRAP!
Now I have always had a hard time understanding the Cook charts, their simplicity always tricks me, but this time around it seems pretty straight forward. If I am reading it correctly Republican potentially could lose 58 seats.
To me, the report is worth studying closely in the Leans- and in the Toss Up- columns. These are the places where the majority will be won and lost:
- 9 Democrats are in the Likely Democratic column
- 3 Republicans are in the Likely Democratic column (Dem. pick-up of 3)
- 3 Democrats are in the Lean Democratic column
- 6 Republicans are in the Lean Democratic column (Dem. pick-up of 6)
- 2 Democrats are in Democratic Toss-up column (Dem. pick up of 2)
- 0 Republicans are in the Democratic Toss-up column
- 0 Democrats are in the Republican toss-up column
- 22 Republicans are in the Republican toss-up column (potential Republican loss of 22)
- 0 Democrats are in the Leans Republican column
- 25 Republicans are in the lean Republican column (potential loss of 25)
- 1 Democrat is in the Likely Republican column (1 potential pick-up for the Republicans)
- 28 Republicans are in the Likely Republican column
…which indicates a big, blue wave. Democrats only need something like 22 seats to take control of the house.
Now this is NOT a sure thing, please keep checking your voter registration (and even if you are in Blue States – this is about Russian fuckery) and take the time right now to mark November 6 Election Day on your calendars and keep it free and clear from other commitments, travel, etc. You might even want to ask your work for a vacation day NOW.