OK, there’s a lot of crystal ball-ing (so to speak), and Oujia-boarding going on in politics, but one of the absolute greatest readers of how things work, Charles Cook of the Cook Political Report is featured in Axios’ Sunday night email thingie, and boy-howdy, does he have sumpin’ to say:
One of their guest speakers [ed – “House Republican officials huddled at the Hyatt on the Chesapeake Bay to discuss their messaging plan to save the House majority…” — TG] was the well-respected election forecaster Charlie Cook, who founded the non-partisan “Cook Political Report.” According to sources in the room, Cook gave the Republican staffers a bleak view of the midterms. He said he was deeply skeptical that simply touting the economic wonders of tax reform would be enough to save the House.
But, you know, Wingnuttia hears what it wants to hear, amiright?
- Some were unimpressed by Cook’s presentation and felt that other pollsters who presented to the group — including Kristen Soltis Anderson and David Winston — gave compelling reasons to think messages of tax reform and economic growth would help them this year.
- One House source pointed out that just a week after Cook’s presentation, his colleague Amy Walter wrote: “Part of the reason for the increase in enthusiasm is the fact that Republicans now have something around which to rally — specifically an improved economy and tax cut law.”
And so there you have it: A respected, non-partisan source is telling them that the Billions for Billionaires tax cut isn’t making Possum Hollar squeal with joy, and the GOP Congress spends most of its time hiding from their constituents while taking meeting from their Paymasters in the Boardrooms, Wingnuttia really believe that giving CEO J. Ambrose McFatcat another few hundred million Ameros in tax cuts is gonna move Possum Hollar to Drop and give ’em $20 might be in for a rude awakening.
Last word goes to Swan:
The bottom line: Republicans have a heck of a hard job saving the House this year, as the president’s party almost always loses seats in his first midterm. Trump’s approval rating remains under water. Democrats are more energized than ever, and there are serious questions about whether Republicans will be motivated enough to show up and vote in the numbers required to save the House.