So the question on everyone in the political media’s hive mind is whether or not the Federal Government is going to shut down by Friday.
Tiger Beat on the Potomac (thanks Charlie!) morning email thingie tells us…
BASED ON WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT CONGRESS, there is a zero percent chance that a deal can be reached at this point and passed this week.
RULE OF THUMB: Congress typically needs three or so days to review a big legislative package.
They say the big question now is whether or not they can even pass a short-term bill to keep the lights on for another month. And no one has any idea.
The Republicans control the entire apparatus of the government, so it would be difficult for them to not own this, but they will be trying to pin the blame on the Dims.
Again, Tiger Beat:
Ryan is a big-picture guy who disdains Congressional drama. A government shutdown would be nettlesome for him, to say the least. He and his leadership team are seeing projections that they could lose something like 40 seats — which would cost them their majority. A shutdown does not do him any good. It’s simple for Ryan: if he can find 218 Republicans who will stick together, he can make Democrats irrelevant. If not, he has to deal.
HOUSE MINORITY LEADER NANCY PELOSI: House Republicans passed the last short-term funding bill without House Democrats. If they are able to thread the needle again — which is still a big if — Pelosi and House Democrats will be largely irrelevant to the debate this week. If Republicans need Democrats to keep the government open, watch to see what she does to try to extract some sort of promise on DACA.
Despite the chatter from the president, Democratic leaders need a DACA deal as badly as anyone. Pelosi has been promising her caucus that she would solve this issue since September. Pelosi and Ryan — who share a cordial, but not especially warm relationship — have similar internal dynamics. There’s a healthy contingent in Pelosi’s caucus that’s skeptical of her legislative strategy. A DACA deal would help quiet that pocket — and give Pelosi a win.
So the question is, why cannot Zombie-eyed Granny-starver Paul Ryan hold together 218 Republicans? I’ll give you a clue from Comrade Racist, who is perhaps now the world’s best known shithouse inspector: immigration.
- The Senate Dims say that they will not vote for a budget if the Dreamers are not protected, somehow.
- The New Confederacy Wing of the GOP are not waiting for some gang of half a dozen senators to write an AMNESTY!!!1! bill that they will loathe.
House Freedom Caucus Rep. Bob Goodlatte wrote his OWN hateful bill, which:
- pushes the Dreamers to the end of the line for citizenship
- eliminates sanctuary cities (states rights!!1! be damned!!1!)
- eliminates chain migration
- eliminates the diversity visa lottery
- increases border security
- requires employers to verify all of their workers’ legal status
The New Confederacy wants to hold a floor vote and send it to the Senate before the Senate can amnesty-ize (is too a verb!) them non-Norwegian illegals. If ZEGS brings the bill up for a vote, he might get 218 Republicans to vote for it, but no Dims.
Senate Dims want to protect the Dreamers or they won’t vote for the budget, so passing the House’s hate-filled authoritarian bill will cause a government shutdown on Friday. And if ZEGS doesn’t bring the bill up for a vote, the Freedom Caucus will try to unseat him.
So it’s the Kobayashi Maru (again) for Paul Ryan. Somewhere, weepy ol’ John Boehner is laughing his orange ass off, swigging the Merlot from the bottle and smoking a pack of ciggiebutts.