The Impeachment Racing Form

Dump Trump (ITMFA!)

Tiger Beat (again) goes deep:

A tidal wave of liberal disdain for President Donald Trump may help deliver the House to Democrats in 2018. And if it does, the new majority will face an immediate, fateful choice: to pursue Trump’s impeachment as the base demands, or to coax their allies away from the doomsday button.

And of course the not-so subtle subtext is that the milquetoasts Dims would be making a YUGE mistake if they did:

But lawmakers who recall the 1998 impeachment of President Bill Clinton are wary of sparking a political backlash for appearing too eager to remove a president without buy-in from independents and even some Republicans. Their tallest task may be persuading fellow Democrats to cool their jets. How the party handles the explosive question of impeachment could determine whether its new majority is still standing two years later.

TBotP then goes into personalities, and the key personality when talking of impeachment is the chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, who would be Rep. Nadler (D-NY) if the Dims retake the house:

“If we were in the majority and if we decide that the evidence isn’t there for impeachment — or even if the evidence is there we decide it would tear the country apart too much, there’s no buy-in, there’s no bipartisanship and we shouldn’t do it for whatever reason — if we decide that, then it’s our duty to educate the country why we decided it,” Nadler said in an interview.

If Mueller issues a report that clearly states that Comrade Trump committed some crime, like, oh, you know, OBSTRUCTION OF JUSTICE, Nadler might change his mind. The key factor is going to be the Senate, because if the Dims do not have 66+ Senators backing them, well, what’s the point? And while it is indeed possible that the Dims will take back the Senate, it is impossible that they will have 66 seats, so some Republicans would have to go along for the ride. (Two-thirds of the Senate would have to vote for impeachment, that’s 66+ Senators.)

What TBotP neglects is what would happen if the Dims didn’t impeach the Russian Usurper.

“I think a lot of the base would push strongly for impeachment. I think many of us feel like the lines have been crossed,” said Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.), who supports impeaching Trump.

I’m only guessing of course, but I would think pretty much the entire base wants the shitgibbon removed from office before he gets us all killed. And I would also guess, given Hair Führer’s record unpopularity, that independents would go along with it too, and god only knows that there are scads of NeverTrumpers on the right.

If the Dims failed to take action (which seems very likely, if Nancy ‘Impeachment is off the table’ Pelosi is in charge), then the huddled masses will come after them with torches (not tiki) and pitchforks, and 2020 would throw the Dims back into the wilderness.

Newt-and-CallistaPS – Note to Nancy: There is a world of difference between Obstruction of Justice and getting a blowjob; the world has also moved on since 1998 when getting a blowjob seemed to shock Republicans during the Clinton impeachment hearings (Republicans who, hysterically, were getting blowjobs from staff and lobbyists. Hi Noot! Hi Ambassador Calista!)

UPDATE-ish: Our pal Infidel has something very important to say (in the comments):

…Pursuing impeachment with no chance of success would allow Trump to declare exoneration and would make it harder to pursue impeachment at a later time when more Senate Republicans had come around and enough of them would vote for conviction after all. A premature impeachment could actually make it harder to eventually get rid of Trump.

He’s absolutely right.

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8 Responses to The Impeachment Racing Form

  1. Infidel753 says:

    It should depend on how many Republicans in the Senate can be persuaded to go along. As you said, it’s mathematically impossible for Democrats to get to 67 seats in 2018, so unless the minimum necessary number of Republicans were at least fairly likely to vote for conviction, impeachment would be an empty gesture, which everyone would know in advance would not remove Trump.

    Even those among the public who fervently want to see Trump removed probably would have enough sense to see that refraining from such an empty gesture — which couldn’t remove Trump anyway — would be wise. Pursuing impeachment with no chance of success would allow Trump to declare exoneration and would make it harder to pursue impeachment at a later time when more Senate Republicans had come around and enough of them would vote for conviction after all. A premature impeachment could actually make it harder to eventually get rid of Trump.

    The key factor will be Mueller’s final report. If it comes out before November and is damning enough, that’s the most likely thing to sway some Republicans to support impeachment. In that case, it might be possible to impeach and remove Trump even before the election.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Osirisopto says:

      “pursue impeachment at a later time when more Senate Republicans had come around”

      You think they’ll start taking their meds?

      Like

      • Infidel753 says:

        What I had in mind there was a scenario where Mueller’s report comes out some time later than the November 2018 election. That’s something that could bring some number of Senate Republicans around. But it would be harder to start an impeachment then if we’d already tried it and failed a couple of months earlier.

        It’s very important to me to get rid of Trump, because to me the biggest danger he presents is the risk of starting a war (even a nuclear one) that would kill huge numbers of people in someplace like Iran or Korea even if it doesn’t do much harm to the US — and that risk, at least, would be much less if Pence were President. But that just means that any move to get rid of Trump must actually get rid of Trump, not not just be some useless symbolic gesture.

        Liked by 1 person

      • tengrain says:

        Infidel – As we say at Tengrain’s Little Hut: when you play chess, you kill the king, you don’t wound him.

        Agreed,

        TG

        Like

  2. However, given Trump’s physical condition, stress will tend to take him out.

    Like

  3. HarpoSnarx says:

    The Evils got their tax-rape . . . they will cut him loose in the spring while Chuck n Nancy will heave sighs of relief.

    Like

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