Dropping a House on the Economy, cont.

I was listening to The Hive podcast yesterday, which featured two (2) Vanity Fair journalists, Nick Bilton interviewing William Cohan, who worked on Wall Street for 17 years. So he’s somewhat of an expert on how markets work.

Cohan says that there will likely be a recession by the 2018 election, and if the Billions for Billionaires™ bill passes, the odds increase that a recession will happen. His argument is psychological: if the interest deduction for your home is removed (Blue States only, I guess, but remember California ALONE is 20% of the US population), then you will feel that your home is worth less than it was just months ago and you will tighten your wallet.

I’m not sure how many people view their homes purely from an asset point of view, but I’m sure that there are some.

Of course, removing the interest deduction will also move home ownership even further away for many people, and that will dampen the demand side (home builders and all the trades) and lo! A recession appears.

I know when I was a first-time California home buyer, after the cold sweats had subsided, I was sustained knowing that my mortgage was going to be deducted.

I will add to that that I think in a very real way, taking the interest deduction away is akin to a tax increase (no refund for you, Buddy!) and because you have less money available, you will spend less, and lo! A recession appears.

I’m not even putting Quatloos down on this one, unless I can short them somehow.

This entry was posted in tax reform, Taxes. Bookmark the permalink.

10 Responses to Dropping a House on the Economy, cont.

  1. Ellis Weiner says:

    What’s the difference between a Quatloo and an Amero? Asking out a citizen’s sincere concern.

    Like

    • tengrain says:

      Ellis –

      The Amero is the unit of money that Wingnuttia was convinced that O’Bummer was going to put in place for all the Americas (like the Euro). Our old pal One-L talked about it all the time. ONE WORLD ORDER!!1!

      Quatloos are units ONLY for wagering as used by the Gamesters from Triskellion in Star Trek TOS, d’uh. I think their closest analog is a bitcoin.

      Basic internet economics!

      Rgds,

      TG

      Liked by 1 person

      • And here I thought Quatloos were originated in DS9. (hangs head in shame. hands over trekkie card. Do you break my spock ears like they did the sword at the beginning of The Rifleman?)

        Like

      • w3ski4me says:

        The sword breaking thing was the guy from the Rifleman, but it was a different series. I think that program was called “Branded”.
        w3ski

        Liked by 2 people

      • tengrain says:

        I guess we are going to have to break BDR’s light sabre over YOUR knee, w3ski4me.

        Rgds,

        TG

        Like

      • MDavis says:

        Also, I can find conversion rates for quatloos to US dollars (between 1.5 cents and about 1.7 cents per quatloo) and not for Ameros, so those conspiracy goons got nuttin.

        Like

  2. w3ski4me says:

    Isn’t it Amazing what a rethug can do for the economy? Remind me again please just what they are “conservative” of?
    w3ski

    Like

    • They are conservative of their own power over women’s uteruses, their donor’s trillion’s, and soon, their ability to starve granny at will.

      I swear the fucking Joker has taken over Gotham City The GOP.

      Liked by 1 person

  3. roket says:

    Um, republican administration = economic downturn. Thus is the way of things.

    Like

    • w3ski4me says:

      Despite their “insisting” otherwise, Rethugs are a consistent drain and dead weight on the economy. Kinda funny really, if it wasn’t so sad for the rest of us. Conservative of Bad Fiscal Policies.
      w3ski

      Like

Comments are closed.