The Horse Race

The 2016 Goat Rodeo!

The 2016 Goat Rodeo!

I was struck this morning while reading First Read (which I almost never do and I forgot was written by that neck with a mouth, Chuck Todd, until I got to the end of it to see the byline) that the Corporate Media is finally dropping all pretense and referring to the 2016 Goat Rodeo as a horse race, something all bloggers worth their salt have been accusing them of doing since the dawn of the innernet (emphasis mine):

“Here’s our top takeaway from the new NBC/WSJ poll we released last night: Almost everyone is in lousy shape. Hillary Clinton’s fav/unfav numbers dropped from 44%-40% (+4) in June to 37%-48% (-11) now — which gives her a worse popularity rating than President Obama has ever had during his presidency. Jeb Bush’s fav/unfav rating, at 26%-40% (-14) is even worse — and it’s worse than Mitt Romney ever had at any point in the 2012 race. And Donald Trump, who leads the GOP horserace, is at 26%-56% (-30). Ratings for other Republicans: Chris Christie (-13), Ted Cruz (-12), Rand Paul (-10), Mike Huckabee (-8), Scott Walker (-1), and Marco Rubio (+1). Even President Obama, who has enjoyed a renaissance in his poll numbers as of late, has seen his overall job-approval rating tick down three points to 45%. So the American public is down on almost every political figure and institution in our NBC/WSJ poll. The exceptions: Bernie Sanders (+5), John Kasich (+5), the NRA (+11), and Planned Parenthood (+15). We’ll have more on those Planned Parenthood and NRA numbers below.”

…and it goes on in that vein for quite a long while. Now, I’m not a betting man and so the over/under stuff always confuses me. My grandfather enjoyed the sporting life, shall we say, and I remember once upon a time him advising me at the county fair to never bet on the horse, but always bet on the jockey. And that’s as far as I go.

(I suppose in this instance the candidate is the nag and the jockey is the campaign manager, so that would have been ol’ Turdblossom riding Chimpy, and that mental image ought to be enough to put you off your feed.)

All that said, I think there’s an easier way to look at this information without all Chuck Todd’s ersatz Damon Runyon horse racing sheet. Here’s how Political Wire is reading the numbers. My analysis follows.

Making the debate:

(In ranked order.)

  1. Trump: 23.2%
  2. Bush: 12.8%
  3. Walker: 10.6%
  4. Carson: 6.6%
  5. Huckabee: 6.6%
  6. Cruz: 6.2%
  7. Rubio: 5.2%
  8. Paul: 4.8%
  9. Christie: 3.4%
  10. Kasich: 2.8%

So these candidates earned about 82.2% of the polling.

Not making the cut:

(Since they are not making the cut, why bother to rank them? But Taegan Goddard is much more up on these things than I, so who am I to judge. We include them here for the historical record.)

  1. Perry: 2.0%
  2. Santorum: 1.4%
  3. Jindal: 1.2%
  4. Fiorina: 1.0%
  5. Graham: 0.4%
  6. Pataki: 0.2%
  7. Gilmore: 0.2%

These candidates earned about 6.4 % of the poll.

When you add these numbers together you see that all the GOP contenders earned 88.6 percent of the polling, which means that 11.4% didn’t like anyone (for whatever reason).

So here’s another way of looking at the numbers:

  1. Trump: 76.8% would prefer someone else
  2. Bush: 87.2% would prefer someone else
  4. Walker: 89.4% would prefer someone else
  5. Carson: 93.4% would prefer someone else
  6. Huckabee: 93.4% would prefer someone else
  7. Cruz: 95.8% would prefer someone else
  8. Rubio: 94.8% would prefer someone else
  9. Paul: 95.2% would prefer someone else
  10. Christie: 96.6% would prefer someone else
  11. Kasich: 97.2% would prefer someone else

So when your third place person is Jeebus-Lizard!, anyone else! the support for the others cannot be so great. These numbers are of course early in the Goat Rodeo and will change, but this is far from all the demons in Hell getting in line behind Donald Trump… or anyone else for that matter.

This entry was posted in 2016 Goat Rodeo. Bookmark the permalink.

8 Responses to The Horse Race

  1. ol’ TURDBLOSSOM riding CHIMPY, and that mental image ought to be enough to put you off your feed Kind of working in the Rude Pundit “Karl Rove’s Leather Slave” vein, there…

    Of course, the remarkable thing with the Republican base is that as authoritarians, they will eventually get in line and vote for the candidate. In the Democratic Party herding cats tradition, the base will stay home or vote for a pyrrhic candidacy “to send a message”….

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Sirius Lunacy says:

    I think Fox should just open the debate up to every GOPer that’s declared and have one big mass debate. And may the best mass debater win!

    Liked by 2 people

  3. HarpoSnarx says:

    “Mass debate”

    Boy the family Goopers won’t like THAT. Thank you!


  4. w3ski4me says:

    Damn you are too good.
    “Never bet on the Horse”, that is something I learned by sheer luck when my kids were big enough to turn loose at the County Fair with “tickets” and we could have our ‘quiet time’ at the races.
    A winning ‘jockey’ would win, or manage to fall off before the line. Consistently enough to pay for the day for all of us.
    Good fun was had by all.
    Great Fun.


Comments are closed.